Making Sense of the Pandemic with Data

Covid By Numbers

'I couldn't imagine a better guidebook for making sense of a tragic and momentous time in our lives. Covid by Numbers is comprehensive yet concise, impeccably clear and always humane' Tim Harford 
 
How many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest by the virus? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How does COVID-19 compare to the Spanish flu? How have the lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health and crime? 
 
This year we have been bombarded by statistics - seven day rolling averages, rates of infection, excess deaths. Never have numbers been more central to our national conversation, and never has it been more important that we think about them clearly. In the media and in their Observer column, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and RSS Statistical Ambassador Anthony Masters have interpreted these statistics, offering a vital public service by giving us the tools we need to make sense of the virus for ourselves and holding the government to account. 
 
In Covid by Numbers, they crunch the data on a year like no other, exposing the leading misconceptions about the virus and the vaccine, and answering our essential questions. This timely, concise and approachable book offers a rare depth of insight into one of the greatest upheavals in history, and a trustworthy guide to these most uncertain of times.

A clear and extremely readable guided tour of the pandemic... This book represents an extremely timely contribution... If journalists, politicians and the public were all provided with a copy then the debate would be vastly better informed, with much more light than heat

Cuts through the noise and disinformation about the pandemic... In single well-evidenced sentences [Spiegelhalter] and Masters can pronounce on months-long conflicts... Reading it, it feels as though there are adults in the room

A valuable overview of COVID-19 statistics and how to navigate them. Rather than just quoting numbers, Spiegelhalter and Masters discuss how to think about epidemic data... No doubt many books will be written on the COVID-19 pandemic... But if they want to get the statistics straight, their authors may want to read Covid by Numbers first

I couldn't imagine a better guidebook for making sense of a tragic and momentous time in our lives. Covid by Numbers is comprehensive yet concise, impeccably clear and always humane

Tim Harford, author of How To Make The World Add Up

A clear, concise statistical journal of the plague year. If you want to understand the numbers behind the virus that stopped the world, you ought to read this book

Fantastic and wonderfully readable. A much needed antidote to the often murky and misinterpreted world of Covid data, explained in a straightforward and clear way - yet always remembering the humanity the data represents

How many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How have lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health and crime? 
 
 This year we have been bombarded by statistics surrounding COVID-19. In the media and in their Observer column, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and RSS Statistical Ambassador Anthony Masters have interpreted these numbers, offering a vital public service by giving us the tools we need to make sense of the virus for ourselves, and holding the government to account. 
 
 In Covid by Numbers, they crunch the data, exposing the leading misconceptions about the virus and the vaccine, and answering our essential questions.

David Spiegelhalter (Author) Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the Centre for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge. His bestselling book, The Art of Statistics, has been published in 11 languages. He was knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, was President of the Royal Statistical Society (2017-2018), and became a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority in 2020. He is @d_spiegel on Twitter. Anthony Masters (Author) Dr Anthony Masters is a Chartered Statistician, a Statistical Ambassador for the Royal Statistical Society, and a frequent blogger and explainer of statistical ideas. He is @anthonybmasters on Twitter.

How many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest by the virus? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How does COVID-19 compare to the Spanish flu? How have the lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health and crime? 
 
This year we have been bombarded by statistics - seven day rolling averages, rates of infection, excess deaths. Never have numbers been more central to our national conversation, and never has it been more important that we think about them clearly. In the media and in their Observer column, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and RSS Statistical Ambassador Anthony Masters have interpreted these statistics, offering a vital public service by giving us the tools we need to make sense of the virus for ourselves and holding the government to account. 
 
In Covid by Numbers, they crunch the data on a year like no other, exposing the leading misconceptions about the virus and the vaccine, and answering our essential questions. This timely, concise and approachable book offers a rare depth of insight into one of the greatest upheavals in history, and a trustworthy guide to these most uncertain of times.

Learning from Data

The Art of Statistics

'A statistical national treasure' Jeremy Vine, BBC Radio 2 
 
'Required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de force' Popular Science 
 
Do busier hospitals have higher survival rates? How many trees are there on the planet? Why do old men have big ears? David Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science. 
 
Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. 
 
In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. 
 
'Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world' Nature

David Spiegelhalter is probably the greatest living statistical communicator; more than that, he's one of the great communicators in any field. This marvellous book will transform your relationship with the numbers that swirl all around us. Read it and learn.

There is something in here for everyone ... A call to arms for greater societal data literacy ... Spiegelhalter's work serves as a reminder that there are passionate, self-aware statisticians who can argue eloquently that their discipline is needed now more than ever.

Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the world . . . The Art of Statistics will serve students well. And it will be a boon for journalists eager to use statistics responsibly - along with anyone who wants to approach research and its reportage with healthy scepticism.

What David Spiegelhalter does here is provide a very thorough introductory grounding in statistics without making use of mathematical formulae. And it's remarkable. Spiegelhalter is warm and encouraging - it's a genuinely enjoyable read ... This book should be required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de force.

The Art of Statistics is in the great educational tradition of its publishing imprint, Pelican Books: an attempt to get everyone up to speed with the practical uses of statistics, without pages of terrifying equations or Greek letters. In a series of spry, airy chapters, he succeeds fabulously ... Lucid and readable. In an age of scientific clickbait, 'big data' and personalised medicine, this is a book that nearly everyone would benefit from reading.

This is an excellent book. Spiegelhalter is great at explaining difficult ideas . . . Yes, statistics can be difficult. But much less difficult if you read this book.

Like the fictional investigator Sherlock Holmes, Spiegelhalter takes readers on a trail to challenge methodology and stats thrown at us by the media and others. But where other authors have attempted this and failed, he is inventive and clever in picking the right examples that spark the reader's interest to become active on their own.

Do you trust headlines telling you . . . that bacon, ham and sausages carry the same cancer risk as cigarettes? No, nor do I. That is why we need a book like this that explains how such implausible nonsense arises in the first place. Written by a master of the subject . . . this book tells us to examine our assumptions. Bravo.

Sir David John Spiegelhalter is a British statistician and Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge. Spiegelhalter is one of the most cited and influential researchers in his field, and was elected as President of the Royal Statistical Society for 2017-18.

Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalized, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. 
 
In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real-world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. 
 
How many trees are there on the planet? Do busier hospitals have higher survival rates? Why do old men have big ears? Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science.

David Spiegelhalter

National treasure status… Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging — without being patronising — introduction to the mathematics of the unknown

Delightful... a coup... an invaluable guide to thinking about uncertainty, from a master of the craft... [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathematicians, for its topic is universal

One of Britain’s most eminent statisticians… [Spiegelhalter] effortlessly shifts from trivial issues like the probability of pulling matching socks out of a drawer to more serious questions about the risk of cancer… A useful and persuasive account that gets us to recognise, understand and ultimately accept uncertainty

Timely... the distinguished statistician shows how simple arithmetic can impose order on the risks that are an integral part of life... One of academia’s best communicators.. this book.. impose(s) some intellectual order on a subject area that is rife with incomprehension, imprecision, contradiction and creative obfuscation

A statistician offers a masterful guide to embracing the unknown… In an age in which scientists often feel pressured to project certainty, and the world clamours for it, his call for acknowledging the limits of our knowledge is refreshing and necessary

This is, without doubt, the most beautifully crafted book of its kind. These pages are rich with stories from 50 years of hard earned wisdom, each packed with insight and bursting with wit and warmth. When put together there is an important and compelling narrative about uncertainty here, this is a book that challenges our assumptions and offers new perspectives on how to embrace it

David Spiegelhalter is a national treasure, and this might be his wisest, most humane and most personal book. I urge you to read it

Tim Harford, author of HOW TO MAKE THE WORLD ADD UP

A superbly entertaining overview of uncertainty in all its manifestations

Professor David J Hand, author of THE IMPROBABILITY PRINCIPLE

The Art of Uncertainty contains a lifetime of wisdom from a true master. No one else can do what David Spiegelhalter does, and take this foggiest but most ubiquitous of human problems, then give it such order, rigour, and impeccable judgement. There’s science, philosophy, medicine, statistics… life… all wrapped in a light and human touch, with one-line insights to die for. I wish it had existed 40 years ago; I suspect it’ll still be keenly read in 40 years time

Michael Blastland, co-author of THE TIGER THAT ISN'T

This is a brilliant book. A must read for anyone who aspires to think intelligently about the world we live in. Uncertainty is all-pervasive: in our personal lives; in responding to social and political issues; in sorting truth from fiction; and in understanding and mitigating global challenges. David Spiegelhalter provides the tools for thinking about all aspects of uncertainty in a rational way

How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck

We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives? 
 
David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better. 
 
In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order. 
 
Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.

David Spiegelhalter

Praise for The Art of Uncertainty

National treasure status… Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging — without being patronising — introduction to the mathematics of ...

Delightful... a coup... an invaluable guide to thinking about uncertainty, from a master of the craft... [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathem ...

One of Britain’s most eminent statisticians… [Spiegelhalter] effortlessly shifts from trivial issues like the probability of pulling matching socks out of a drawer to more serious questions about the risk of ...

National treasure status… Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging — without being patronising — introduction to the mathematics of ...

Delightful... a coup... an invaluable guide to thinking about uncertainty, from a master of the craft... [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathem ...

One of Britain’s most eminent statisticians… [Spiegelhalter] effortlessly shifts from trivial issues like the probability of pulling matching socks out of a drawer to more serious questions about the risk of ...

National treasure status… Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging — without being patronising — introduction to the mathematics of ...

Delightful... a coup... an invaluable guide to thinking about uncertainty, from a master of the craft... [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathem ...

One of Britain’s most eminent statisticians… [Spiegelhalter] effortlessly shifts from trivial issues like the probability of pulling matching socks out of a drawer to more serious questions about the risk of ...

Books by David Spiegelhalter

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